Possible Short Squeeze Sends Nickel Price Soaring

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2022-03-08 HKT 22:10

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  • The London Metal Exchange suspended trading in the metal. Photo: AFP

    The London Metal Exchange suspended trading in the metal. Photo: AFP

The London Metal Exchange on Tuesday suspended trading in nickel after the base metal rocketed to a record peak above US$100,000 as Russian supply concerns sparked sharp volatility.

"Following further unprecedented overnight increases in the three-month nickel price, the LME has made the decision to suspend trading for, at minimum, the remainder of today," the exchange said in a brief statement.

Nickel earlier spiked to an all-time pinnacle of US$101,365 per tonne.

It later settled back to US$80,000, up 66.4 percent from Monday, before the market was halted.

"We suspect that a so-called short squeeze is partly responsible for the extraordinary price surge, in addition to the concerns about supply," said Commerzbank analyst Daniel Briesemann.

"Some market participants who had been betting on falling prices were clearly surprised and wrong-footed by the price upswing and momentum since Russia's invasion of Ukraine."

A short squeeze occurs when investors bet on falling prices but are then wrong-footed by the market and forced to close out their positions and purchase at a far higher price, sparking a volatile spike.

"We regard the price surge as exaggerated and expect trading to calm down again once the short squeeze has run its course," cautioned Briesemann.

Russia, which attacked its neighbour Ukraine 13 days ago, is a major producer of the metal used to make stainless steel and batteries for electric vehicles.

As a result, nickel has blazed a record-breaking trail, after jumping to US$54,880 on Monday to shatter its prior 2007 peak.

Russia's military incursion into Ukraine and Western sanctions against Moscow have caused turmoil in commodity markets, sending the prices of everything from oil to gas to aluminium to wheat soaring.

Russia is the world's third biggest producer of nickel, noted Benjamin Louvet, analyst at OFI Asset Management.

"For now, the main producers of metals in the country have been spared by sanctions, but many companies in this sector are headed by oligarchs close to Vladimir Putin," Louvet said.

"The impact of such sanctions could be significant, as 37 percent of Russian exports go to the Netherlands and 16 percent to Germany," he said.

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